Bayesian thinking · IN SHORT
State what you believed before a new signal arrived, then inspect its quality. This English skill updates confidence without inventing probabilities and suggests the next informative test.
Your brief
Three prospects asked for an export feature, but all came through one partner. Does this justify building it?
Possible draft
Confidence in demand rises slightly. The requests may share one cause, so the next step is a prototype test with prospects outside that partner channel.
01 / THE FOUNDATION
A claim, prior belief, evidence table, proportionate confidence update and a reversible next action.
02 / SEE HOW IT WORKS
Three prospects asked for an export feature, but all came through one partner. Does this justify building it?
Confidence in demand rises slightly. The requests may share one cause, so the next step is a prototype test with prospects outside that partner channel.
This example shows the approach. It is not a client result or a guarantee of a particular outcome.
03 / GET STARTED
State the claim and what would count against it before considering the new evidence.
Check reliability, independence, sample size and alternative explanations.
Describe how confidence moves and choose the next observation that could change the decision.
04 / MAKE IT YOURS
Take the instructions, add your own context and review the draft. You stay in control.
Full informationDownload. Apply. Refine.
File language: English